WINTER OUTLOOK 2007-2008

By Rob Guarino

Thanks for stopping in to check out my 2007-2008 Winter Outlook.  If you do want to mention it on another site please use a link rather than cut and paste the report, thanks.

I’m a firm believer of past winters with La Nina; they often provide us with hints to the upcoming season due to the pattern and similarities.  So let’s look at the factors for this winter and weigh them. This is how I determine my outlook for this winter.

La Nina (50%)

Warm Atlantic Cycle (25%)

N.A.O. Pattern (15%)

Early Fall Weather (5%)

A.O. (5%)

LA NINA (50%)

La Nina is the cooling of the Pacific Ocean and the complete opposite of EL NINO. Now due to cooler waters the storms tend to be less intense off the Pacific coast and tend to ride northward in the NW U.S. not the Southern California coast.  This means two things during an average LA NINA winter.  

First, cooler water produces less energy for storms so the storms are typically weaker from the west coast.  Secondly, the path to head north to Seattle also can mean weaker storms.  The exception could be if Arctic air catches that system past the Mountains of Washington State, then you could get a big storm.

What does La Nina mean for us?  Well if you play the numbers game and compare these winter below you will see we are looking at a lower than average snowfall this winter.  The pattern tends to be more zonal, or west to east weather.  That means no real big dips in the JET to get the cold air to clash with the southern moist air of the Gulf.  It could still happen on a storm or two but in these years most of the time it does not.  

You do get the feel of that pattern right now.  A few cold days but still the shots of warm making it every few days.  I do think the LA NINA is going to get stronger and that means shorter cold outbreaks.  The upside to the snowbirds is lower heating bills this winter, if there is a bright note

 NOTICE THE SWATCH OF COOL WATER BUILDING EAST (BLUE-PURPLE)

WARM ATLANTIC CYCLE (25%)

Most of us love the ocean and after a record warm October you know we are going into this winter with above average ocean/river temps.  This usually means the rain/snow line is much further inland on storms and more than most times the winter precip. will change to rain. This factor will also keep the snow totals below normal. 

We are in a long term cycle of warmer ocean temps. This is called Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation. This cycle lasts from about 25 to maybe up to 40 years.  Not every year will have very warm ocean temps but more than 70% will have it above average.  This also tends to make hurricanes stronger and more numerous, like it did back in the big 50s of hurricanes. More on the correlation a little further down in this outlook.

Notice how warm the Arctic Ocean is this fall, Less Arctic Cold to draw from this winter.

N.A.O. PATTERN (15%)

The NAO or North Atlantic Oscillation has been research so much more the past ten years and I am getting more convinced this is a good tool to use in forecast 7-14 day periods for snow and cold vs. warm and wet.  It has been a good indicator over the past few winters for me but due to its short term winter outlook (2 week look vs. La Nina Seasonal look) I weigh this much less than the La Nina Pattern.

I think we’ll get some negative (-) swings in the pattern (cold and stormy is negative) but they will be less than normal and have less cold air to really get the Big Nor’easter off the coast.  This could be the year of the “CLIPPER ZIPPER” or Clipper +. What I mean by that is look at the most recent system. It was bigger than expected and managed to really tap the deeper warmer waters of the Gulf Stream and toasty Atlantic. This type of system is the wild card or “X” factor in this winter.  I still bet against but this is where the surprise snow will come this winter not the classic Nor’easter.  

The NAO is not up to the big swings of the Positive and Negative. We may see those swings in the early winter but not in the core of the winter. That means the clipper we just had could bring a December surprise for some.  We shall see but don’t count it out at this point.

EARLY FALL WEATHER (5%)

Oh it has been a mild run overall so far and that will be more than likely the pattern here.  No doubt getting out of the gate with milder than normal temps and ocean numbers plays a big factor on December weather.  Not going to get into much on this since we are in it now and know the facts. I did a bit of research and outside a few years we generally go into winter slowly with a pattern like this one.

AO  (5%)

Don’t look too much into this, I weigh it 5% due to the uncertain connection this will have a times with the La Nina pattern.  The AO or Arctic Oscillation had some wild swings last winter but those colder runs did not always equate into storms and cold here. The AO tends to have to stay negative for a long period of time to really set the pattern here.

You do see the AO tanking on the 14 day period but watch the lag to really get that cold air here. The jet is going to want to hang up in the Northern states and points north for some Canadian fun.  Those air masses will modify by the time they get here days later. Throw in the Warmer than Normal Arctic Ocean and the AO may be more BARK than BITE at times.

BIG HEATING BILLS OR NOT?

I do think we’ll get the usual cold outbreaks but not as many and those will not last as long as the typical outbreak.  This means less on heating costs and some wild ride in temps.  The 50s for highs will be more common than the 30s so don’t put away the light jacket this winter. Oh you’ll use the winter coat but the light jacket may get just as much use.

OVERALL WINTER OUTLOOK DEC-MAR SHOWS +2 ABOVE AVERAGE

THE GOOD STUFF…HOW MUCH SNOW FOR YOU?

I often tell young and upcoming meteorologists to look at what is going on now and base future weather from here.  Don’t get hung up on every model run and every index you see out there. I think the Clipper + factor could make this an interesting early winter. 

So keep this last Clipper + in mind for December and very Early January.  This will be the surprise of the winter the way I see it at this point.

SNOWFALL OUTLOOK ===========================================================

POCONOS (NORTHERN CARBON, NORTHERN MONROE AND NORTH)

(AVERAGE 40”)  THIS WINTER 38”

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LEHIGH VALLEY (S. CARBON/S. MONROE, LEHIGH, NORTHAMPTON, NORTHERN BERKS, SCHUYLKILL, WARREN, N. HUNTERDON)

(AVERAGE 33”)  THIS WINTER 26”

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PHILLY N & W (N. MONTCO, N. BUCKS, SE BERKS, N CHESTER, HUNTERDON, N MERCER, SOMERSET) 

(AVERAGE 27”)  THIS WINTER 20”

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PHILLY METRO (PHILLY HILLS, S. BUCKS, S. MONTCO, S. CHESTER, HILLS OF DELCO, NW HILLS OF NEW CASTLE, S MERCER, WESTERN BURLINGTON )

(AVERAGE 22”)  THIS WINTER 15”

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PHILLY METRO S & E (PHILLY, CAMDEN, GLOUCESTER, NEW CASTLE, N SALEM, EAST BURLINGTON,)

(AVERAGE 19”)  THIS WINTER 13”

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LOWER SNJ AND CENTRAL-LOWER DE, BEACHES (KENT, SUSSEX, CUMBERLAND, CECIL, CAPE MAY, OCEAN, ATLANTIC)

(AVERAGE 14”)  THIS WINTER 8”